Jan. 25 Manila Bus Bombing – Who Did It?

In the early years of the discovery of Southeast Asia’s interlinked terrorist groups, authorities could look at the elements of a bomb – the chemicals used, the detonator, the crater left behind – and find the “signature” of a group. That was – for example – how Indonesian and Filipino authorities realized the bomb which exploded at the Philippine Ambassador’s house in Jakarta in 2000 had the signature of the MILF, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the largest Muslim separatist group in the Philippines.

Today, life isn’t so simple for counterterrorism officials, intelligence analysts and members of the EOD (the Explosives Ordinance Division).

Despite the wide, gaping hole on the right side of the bus; the damage it caused – 5 people killed, at least 14 injured; and the bus driver’s interview saying he ruled out a mechanical or electrical reason for the explosion because he smelled powder, authorities veered away from calling it a bomb. They are cautious because the bomb blast happened three months after 6 nations – the United States, Australia, Great Britain, Canada, France and New Zealand – warned about possible attacks in the Philippines and its capital, Manila.

So who could have carried out this attack?

There are many possible culprits, showing the the nexus between terrorism and crime and how the threat is evolving today.

Philippine intelligence sources and officials quickly verified – initially off the record – their initial findings showed it was a bomb most likely placed under a passenger seat. They said they found cell phone parts, which may indicate it was used as a detonator – a trademark of groups trained by Jemaah Islamiyah or JI, Al-Qaeda’s arm in Southeast Asia. That would include groups like the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the now relatively neutralized Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM). Members of the bomb squad – the EOD – were debating whether the fragments they found on the scene were from a 60-mm or an 81-mm mortar – again a signature of these groups.

The blast happened about a block away from a similar explosion six years ago. The February 14 “Valentine’s Day” bombings killed 6 people and was part of a series of coordinated, near-simultaneous attacks (explosions in Davao and General Santos City) that killed a total of 13 people and injured more than 150 in 2005.

The Abu Sayyaf claimed responsibility for the attacks. Authorities quickly arrested suspects, and eight months later, an Indonesian JI member (who claimed he was part of both JI and ASG) and two Filipino members of ASG (who were also members of RSM) were convicted for the Manila bus bombing.

You’re seeing the shadowy lines between the groups? At one point, the ASG and JI were operating as one group while RSM members had effectively been absorbed into the ASG.

Anyway, even though yesterday’s bombing may look similar to 2005, intelligence sources caution against jumping to conclusions.

There are two reasons why.

First, bus bombings are a trademark of another group called Al-Khobar, whose members threaten and carry out attacks if bus owners refuse to pay them. It’s largely an extortion group that operates in the southern Philippines. Intelligence sources say former members of the MILF’s covert Special Operations Group formed Al-Khobar to make money. In 2008, an arrested member of Al-Khobar admitted their group is led by an MILF field commander.

The MILF has repeatedly denied any institutional links to Al-Khobar or any other terrorist group.

The last major bus attack in the Philippines happened in October 2010 in the southern Philippines, killing 10 people (decapitating 2) and injuring 30. Authorities blamed Al-Khobar, saying it used an 81-mm mortar round remotely detonated by a cellphone – elements present in Tuesday’s attack.



The second reason for caution is related to politics. Intelligence sources say these elements – the mortar round, the cellphone detonator – are well known and could easily be replicated by groups which may intend to destabilize the government of President Aquino or divert attention away from ongoing stories involving security forces.

President Aquino on Tuesday indicated he believed the bomb was not politically motivated and seemed to veer towards known groups – although he declined to name them until concrete evidence emerges.

What’s clear is that the terrorism threat has evolved in the Philippines and the situation has grown more complex.

source: mariaressa.com